On the Reference Scenario the rate of growth in demand for this energy source would be 1.5% per year, and demand would expand even on the strict 450 Scenario. On the Reference Scenario, 80% of the increase in demand for natural gas between 2007 and 2030 would come from countries outside the OECD.

Other conclusions drawn in the study regarding natural gas include the following:

• Available gas reserves are sufficient to meet expected demand, although at rising costs.
• Very substantial sums of financial resource will be needed in order to begin new operations to replace one half of those currently in existence.
• The rapid development of non-conventional gas over the last three years, in particular in the USA and Canada, has transformed the forecasts for this energy source. The evolution of such gas in these countries and other parts of the world could affect the role of natural gas in the long term. For example, forecasts for the output of non-conventional gas in the USA and Canada alone by 2030 would rise from the figure of 367 bcm in 2007 to 629 bcm in 2030.
• The forecast increase in the price of crude in 2010, and the likely continuance of low gas prices in the USA, could lead to greater pressure to uncouple the price of gas from the price of oil derivatives on the European and Asian markets.

On the European scene, and in the short term, Eurogas expects demand in the European Union to rise by 1% in 2010, following the substantial fall seen in 2009.

In 2009 Cedigaz performed a number of medium-term natural gas market research studies.. One of these was presented at the World Gas Congress held in Buenos Aires. According to the High Demand Scenario, European demand for gas will rise from 568 bcm in 2008 to 692 bcm by 2020, a year-on-year rate of increase of 1.6%.

The rise will be higher over the period 2012 to 2017. Four markets (the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain and Turkey) will account for almost 60% of this growth.

The share of gas usage in power generation will rise four points by 2020. The use of gas to generate electricity could account for 60% of the absolute growth in gas demand in the United Kingdom, Germany, Austria and Ireland, and more than 45% in Italy, Spain, Turkey, France and Belgium.

The contextual forecast (2011 to 2020) is as follows:

• Economic growth in Europe of 2-2.5%, oil prices of $80 a barrel and coal at $110/Tm.
• Maintenance of the strong relationship between crude oil and natural gas prices.
• Increase in the price of CO², to €26/Tm.
• LNG will experience rapid growth and play a major role in the European supply mix, in particular in the medium term, competing with gas pipeline supply. The United Kingdom, Spain and Italy will see the greatest growth.
• Increase in the output of non-conventional gas in the USA will lead to excess supply of LNG on the American market. Such additional volumes in the Atlantic will work in favour of a convergence of prices across the different markets, with Europe being well positioned to take advantage of this situation.

On the Low Demand Scenario, forecasting economic growth of less than 2% per year, a context of low energy prices and CO² at $20/Tm, gas consumption in Europe would be expected to rise at a rate of 1.3%, up to 665 bcm by 2020, with the share of natural gas rising from 24% in 2008 to 25% in 2020.

At the most recent World Gas Congress the IGU Strategy, Economy and Regulation Committee presented its report which, among other aspects, deals with energy demand in 2030, including natural gas demand. The following points should be highlighted:

• In the Reference Case, CO² emissions reduction targets will not be met. As an alternative, a Sustainability Scenario has been devised, illustrating that natural gas could make the difference. In fact, an increase in the share of natural gas in primary energy consumption, combined with greater use of renewables, could achieve a downward trend in CO² emissions, bringing emissions down to levels lower than those seen at present by 2030.
• On this Sustainability Scenario, the share of natural gas would account by 2030 for 28% of global primary energy demand, while renewable energies would make up 15% by 2020 and 25% by 2030.
• In the Reference Case, natural gas demand is projected at an annual increase worldwide of 1.6%. The figure reached by 2030 is 400 bcm lower than that given in the 2006 IGU Report.
• Development of gas-gas competition and its extension from North America and the United Kingdom to Continental Europe is a pattern which will probably also be seen in the global LNG market.
• The gas sector is in the midst of a period of profound change. Over the coming years we would expect to see an industry characterised by sustainable growth, increased competition, an increase in non-conventional gas, LNG and regulation.
• Although LNG accounts for less than 8% of the worldwide gas supply, it constitutes 25% of international trade. Its growth has the potential to bring about a greater globalisation of the price of natural gas, and to make gas-gas competition the main mechanism for pricing in the future. There are, however, factors which could delay this process. One of these is political resistance to change if the national interests of producers could be jeopardised.
• The reduction in the cost of shale gas production in the USA has been dramatic, and has dramatically altered future needs for LNG in North America. The future supply on this market will depend on the difference in price between LNG on the US market (and on other markets) and the cost of non-conventional gas production.
• The impact of short-term imbalances between supply and demand, and the volatility of the price of crude, have led to short-term volatility in the price of gas. This volatility is not helping the gas sector plan for the long term.
• The gas sector is well positioned to achieve the investments and resources required in order to deal with growing demand for gas, an energy source which is and will remain vital as part of the worldwide primary energy mix.