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Gas in the world > Forecasts
Forecasts
The worldwide demand for natural gas keeps up its prospects for growth. The fields in deep waters and unconventional gas bring an additional capacity for exceptional resources.

The IEA published a Special Report in June 2011 (Are we entering the Golden Age of gas?) exclusively dedicated to analyzing the short, medium and long term role of natural gas. The report examines the factors that will condition the demand (and supply) of natural gas in the upcoming decades, the conditions under which gas could play a more prominent role in the global energy balance and the implications that a golden age of gas could have for energy markets and the environment.
The following points were highlighted:

  • The GAS Scenario takes the WEO-2010 New Policies Scenario as a starting point and adopts new premises that take on the effect of constructing more positive predictions for natural gas until 2035. These new assumptions include a more ambitious policy for gas use in China, larger nuclear energy growth, more unconventional gas production and lower prices. It is assumed that there will be strong support for renewable energy, as in the World Energy Outlook 2010 (WEO-2010).
  • In the GAS Scenario, the world demand is close to 600 bcm more in the year 2035, than that in the WEO-2010 New Policies Scenario. The shares for natural gas in the energy matrix rises from 21% (WEO-2010) to 25%.
  • In order to face this demand, in 2035 the worldwide annual production should rise 1.8 billion m3 (1.8 tcm), approximately three times Russia’s current production. China will become one of the biggest world producers, but will still import more than half of what they need in 2035.
  • The CO2 emissions in the GAS Scenario are only slightly less than in the WEO-2010 New Policies Scenario report. Where gas displaces the demand for other fossil fuels (mainly coal), there is a positive effect on pollutant gas emissions, but if the nuclear electricity demand is replaced, the emissions increase.
    This situation puts the CO2 emissions on a path consistent with the stabilization of greenhouse gases around 650 ppm, resulting in a probable long term increase in temperature of 3.5º C. A policy to limit the temperature increase by 2ºC would require actions with additional efforts to increase energy efficiency, the adoption of stronger low carbon energy policies, and applying new technologies, including trapping and storing carbon.
  • International trade in areas of the world would increase by more than double, with a rise of more than 620 bcm in international trade, between pipelines and LNG.

In November the IEA published the 2011 edition of the World Energy Outlook, of which these points related to natural gas are highlighted:

  • In the central hypothesis of the New Policies Scenario of the IEA, primary energy demand will increase by one third between 2010 and 2035. 90% of that increase will be in countries outside the OECD.
  • The share of fossil energies in the global consumption of primary energy will drop from the current 81% to 75% in 2035.
  • Global demand for natural gas will capture an important share of the energy mix. The share will almost reach the level that coal will reach in 2035: 23.2% gas and 24.2% coal. According to the IEA, in 2009 the market shares were 20.9% for natural gas and 27.1% for coal.
  • Russia (among other countries) will benefit from this increase in the demand for gas. But the great challenge for this country is to finance the high costs of operating new oil and gas fields.
  • If Russia put into practice energy efficiency measures that were similar to those existing in OECD countries, its energy consumption could drop by one third. Its potential annual savings in natural gas is approximately 180 bcm (the IEA points out), which is only slightly below its exports in 2010.
Annual Report 2010
Annual Report 2.010: Sedigas - The Spanish Gas Association