In its latest publication on the medium-term world energy forecast, (International Energy Outlook 2007, May), the US government agency EIA (Energy Information Administration) expects a 57% increase in energy consumption between 2004 and 2030, in the reference model. The expected jump in demand will be 95% in the non-OECD group of countries, and 24% in the OECD.

The largest average increase will be in electricity (2.4% annual cumulative), followed by natural gas (1.2%). In the industrial market, coal will experience similar rates of increase to electricity (2.2%), also followed by natural gas. In the generation market, natural gas is first, with an annual rate of 2.5%, followed by coal (2.2%), renewables (1.9%) and nuclear (1.4%). The share occupied by renewable energies (including hydroelectric) is calculated to rise to 8% in 2030, one percentage point more than in 2004.
In the markets overall, coal shows the greatest annual increase, with an annual cumulative rate of 2.2%, followed by natural gas and the renewable energies (1.9% in both cases).

The estimated average growth in global energy consumption between 2004 and 2030 is 1.8%. It will be recalled that in last year’s report, the EIA estimated world growth in energy consumption at 2% for a similar period.

In the study done seven months later, but referring to the USA (Annual Energy Outlook 2008. Early Release Dec. 2007), the same body emphasised the effect of prices on the demand projections. In particular, the continuing high crude prices and an estimation of high natural gas prices led the authors to conclude that coal would experience growth rates considerably above those predicted in studies done by this agency a few years ago. Natural gas will move (between 2005 and 2030) at around an annual rate of 0.3%; oil products at 0.7%; coal around an average figure of 1.4%. The last mentioned would rise from supplying 22.5% of the USA’s energy needs in 2006 to 25.6% in 2030. Natural gas would fall back slightly, to below 20% of the energy balance sheet in that country in 2030.

There is one qualification, however. One of the most important inputs in the study is prices. Natural gas prices were at high levels in 2005 in the US market. There were maximum values (e.g. 15 dollars/million Btu) which will probably become an historical anecdote in the future, once the LNG plants presently projected or under construction are completed.