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The international energy Environment > Future outlook
Future outlook
The International Energy Agency presented its World Energy Outlook 2007, partly discussed above, in London on 9 November. This year’s edition dedicates special attention to energy development in China and India and to the implications for the world. In the words of Mr. Nobuo Tanka, Executive Director of the IEA: “The energy developments in China and India are transforming the world energy system.”
The study shows more clearly than ever that if governments do not change their policies, imports of oil and gas, the use of coal and greenhouse gas emissions will grow inexorably until 2030.
Saggas
Saggas
If governments maintain their present policies (which the Reference Scenario assumes), world energy needs will be 55% higher in 2030 than they are now.”

Other notes from the study are:
  • Of the 55% forecast growth, 74% would go to the developing countries.
  • Coal is the primary energy which will experience the greatest increase in demand in absolute terms, rising from 25% to 28% on the world energy balance sheet between 2005 and 2030. Most of this increase will be due to China and India.
  • Oil will continue to be the energy source most in demand, although its share would decline from 35% in 2005 to 32% in 2030.
  • Natural gas consumption will increase in absolute and relative values, although less so than coal. Its share would be about 22% in 2030, one percentage point more than in the starting year.
  • Oil, natural gas and coal resources are sufficient to meet expected demand, but the concentration of crude in the OPEC countries is high, as is the expected investment to put these three forms of energy on the market.
  • If current policies continue, greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 55% by 2030.
  • In the Alternative Scenario, world energy demand would grow by 1.3% a year, rather than the 1.8 used in the Reference Scenario.
Annual
Report
07
Annual Report 2.007: Sedigas - The Spanish Gas Association