Sedigas - Annual Report 2.008

The worldwide gas industry > Production, demand and international trade > Production and demand

Production and demand

The International Energy Agency’s “World Energy Outlook” gives an idea of some of the basic developments as regards both production and demand.

COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD (10⁹ m³) (1)

North America
USA
Canada
Central & South America
Mexico
Venezuela
Argentina
Trinidad & Tobago
Bolivia
Brazil
Europe (2)
Norway
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Germany
Italy
CIS
Russia (3)
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Azerbaijan
Africa
Algeria
Egypt
Nigeria
Libya
Middle East
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Abu Dhabi
Qatar
Asia-Oceanía
Indonesia
Malaysia
Australia
Pakistan
China
India
TOTAL WORLD

1970

651,8
595,1
56,7
34,5
12,6
9,0
6,0
---
n.a.
n.a.
79,7
0,0
11,1
33,4
13,9
13,1
24,9
234,2
197,9
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
3,4
2,8
0,1
---
0,3
19,5
0,8
12,0
0,7
---
17,0
1,3
0,9
1,5
3,8
3,4
0,3
1.040,1

1980

624,4
549,6
74,8
65,5
28,6
14,8
9,4
---
0,4
0,3
199,1
26,6
37,3
90,3
27,5
12,5
34,3
484,4
434,4
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
27,2
18,0
2,9
1,1
5,2
44,1
10,2
8,0
7,2
3,3
74,1
18,5
1,1
9,5
8,1
14,3
12,7
1.518,8

1990

611,7
504,9
106,8
85,0
26,7
21,4
17,8
4,7
2,7
3,4
196,7
27,1
49,6
72,4
23,4
17,3
28,3
855,1
814,6
73,7
34,3
6,0
23,6
70,9
51,6
8,1
4,0
6,2
99,9
30,5
24,2
15,3
6,3
149,0
45,4
18,5
18,4
14,4
14,4
10,6
2.068,3

1995

685,3
526,7
158,6
99,6
26,6
25,2
25,0
5,5
2,8
4,3
238,8
30,5
75,5
78,4
20,2
20,4
19,4
737,7
705,2
27,1
40,8
5,0
15,3
85,1
58,1
12,4
5,2
6,3
146,9
38,0
35,3
21,6
13,5
210,5
63,4
28,9
27,3
18,3
17,0
17,8
2.203,9

2000

720,8
537,6
183,2
134,1
35,8
30,5
37,4
14,1
3,2
7,2
280,3
52,9
108,3
67,8
21,2
15,7
13,6
746,6
584,2
47,0
56,4
11,5
18,0
125,7
83,2
18,3
12,5
5,9
213,2
49,8
60,2
27,5
29,1
271,2
66,8
48,4
32,3
22,8
27,1
22,5
2.491,9

2005

697,6
511,8
185,8
177,4
39,1
28,7
45,6
31,0
10,4
11,4
298,5
87,0
87,8
72,8
16,6
12,1
12,4
775,2
596,9
59,0
55,7
23,7
19,3
172,8
88,0
42,5
22,4
11,3
317,3
71,2
100,9
38,2
45,8
361,6
73,8
63,5
38,9
30,8
48,0
29,9
2.800,4

2007

719,6
540,2
179,4
193,3
46,3
26,5
44,8
39,4
14,1
9,8
288,8
89,7
72,3
68,3
15,1
9,7
11,6
795,5
611,5
64,6
61,2
27,8
19,5
192,8
84,8
46,5
32,5
15,3
356,8
74,4
111,9
40,7
63,2
389,8
68,6
55,5
43,7
36,5
67,9
31,4
2.936,6

2008

749,1
582,2
166,9
199,5
48,6
26,0
44,1
39,3
14,2
12,6
300,9
99,2
69,9
75,8
13,8
9,1
10,7
814,6
621,3
66,1
63,4
31,4
19,8
201,5
86,3
48,3
32,5
15,9
379,0
78,1
115,9
40,8
76,6
410,6
70,0
57,3
47,5
37,5
76,1
32,2
3.055,2

(1) Except in North America, only includes the main producing states in each area.
(2) Since 2007, EU 27 plus Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and Central Europe. The figures for previous years, not including figures for Central Europe, which were included in the area of Eastern Europe and CIS.
(3) Includes total figures for the former USSR/CIS until 1995 inclusive. From 2000, only refers to data from the Russian Federation. Source: CEDIGAZ

There has been a slowdown in gas consumption in the USA, with an overall increase for the year of around 0.8%. It should be recalled that consumption grew in 2007 at a rate of over 6%. Domestic production has seen an increase of around 7.7% and the country’s total imports for the year fell by nearly 14% over the twelve months.

The production of non-conventional gas in the USA (mainly from sand, schist and coal fields) is expected to continue growing over the medium and long term, though at a slower rate than it has over the last two years. It currently accounts for around 50% of total natural gas production in the country and will become the leading gas production source in 2009.

Consumption increased in OECD countries around the Pacific by just over 3%. This once again shows a clear slowdown as compared with the increase of 9.2% recorded in 2007.

COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS. DISTRIBUTION (%) BY LARGE GEOGRAPHICAL AREA.

North America
Central & South America
Europe (1)
CIS
Africa
Middle East
Asia-Oceania
TOTAL WORLD
TOTAL Bcm(10⁹ m³)

1970

62,7
3,3
7,7
22,5
0,3
1,9
1,6
100,0
1.040,1

1980

41,1
4,3
13,1
31,9
1,8
2,9
4,9
100,0
1.518,8

1990

29,6
4,1
9,5
41,3
3,4
4,8
7,2
100,0
2.068,3

2000

28,9
5,4
11,2
30,0
5,0
8,6
10,9
100,0
2.491,9

2005

24,9
6,3
10,7
27,7
6,2
11,3
12,9
100,0
2.800,4

2007

24,5
6,6
9,8
27,1
6,6
12,2
13,3
100,0
2.936,6

2008

24,5
6,5
9,8
26,7
6,6
12,4
13,4
100,0
3.055,2

(1) Since 2007, EU 27 plus Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and Central Europe. The figures for previous years, not including figures for Central Europe, which were included in the area of Eastern Europe and CIS.
Source: CEDIGAZ. Prepared by Sedigas.

The IEA’s preliminary estimates of production in Australia indicate a drop of 4.3%.
Production of natural gas in Canada also fell, in this case by 4.1%. Canada is the third largest producer of natural gas in the world, and it should be remembered that the country to which it exports most is the USA.
In contrast to 2007, natural gas production in all the European OECD countries combined increased during 2008. The two main driving forces behind this rise were Norway and the Netherlands, the largest producers in this part of the world. Norwegian production grew by 9.8%, while the Netherlands recorded an even greater rise of 11.8%. In the case of Norway, which is the largest exporter in Western Europe while hardly consuming any gas itself, this could be due to the favourable prices on offer in the international market during the first part of 2008. In the Netherlands, which is also an exporting country, the situation was strengthened by an increase in domestic consumption over the last twelve months.

The downward trend in production continued, however, in the other European gas-producing members of the OECD. The most important fall was in the United Kingdom, where production fell by a little over 3%. However, the effect of the solid prices during the first part of 2008 also meant that the fall was smaller than the 9.45% recorded in 2007, according to provisional data from the IEA.
For all the OECD countries combined, the IEA’s figures indicate an increase in demand of 1.2%. Estimates being quoted for the increase in overall worldwide production stand at around the 2.5% mark.

CEDIGAZ’ First Estimates (May 2009), is the source of this other information:

Production:

World gas supply soared 4.0% to just over 3055 bcm in 2008, propelled by fast-growing consuming market trends in both non-OECD countries (Brazil, Peru, Algeria, Nigeria, Abu Dhabi, Oman, China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, etc.), and the OECD (Mexico, United Kingdom, Spain, United States, Hungary, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan).
North America and the FSU boosted their output 4.2% and 2.4% respectively. The role of North America in world production settled at a 26.1% market share, while the Former Soviet Union saw its market share dip very slightly from 27.1% to 26.7%. Outside these two main producing areas, the Middle East recorded the largest output growth, estimated at 6.2% over the year, with market share of 12.4% of world supply. Africa and Asia also recorded significantly higher production, assessed at 4.5% and 5.3% respectively, while Latin America posted lower average growth of 2.7%. Europe maintained almost 10% market share of global production, posting a record growth rate of 4.2%, unseen since the early 1990s, contrasting with substantial declines in the previous three years. This unusual European pattern was explained by the development of recent new fields in Norway and enhanced production from the Groningen field in the Netherlands.
In the United States, marketed gas production soared at an exceptional rate of 7.8% to 582.2 bcm in 2008. Production was 6.2% higher than the previous year's level in the second half of the year, compared to 8.4% in the second quarter and 10.5% in the first. Production in the second half of the year was affected by the impact of economic recession and the production shut-ins caused by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in September. However, the steady growth in onshore unconventional production, economic slowdown and a robust rebound in storage inventories from July likely outweighed the impact of offshore supply disruptions on prices, explaining the continued downward slide of natural gas prices through the end of the year.
In the USA, the trend toward higher prices in recent years was accompanied by the development of unconventional resources using new drilling techniques in new areas, in particular the Texas shale gas basins.
Canadian marketed production dropped abruptly in 2008 for the second consecutive year, by a rate of 6.9% to approximately 167 bcm in 2008.
European marketed production rose by an unusual 4.2% to 301 bcm, driven by enhanced production in Norway and the Netherlands, surging 11% in both countries.
Russian gas production rose 1.6% to 621.3 bcm, compared to 611.5 bcm in 2007. A large part of this growth was consecutive to the first full year of production of the Yuzhno Russkoye field, commissioned in December 2007.
Significant production gains were recorded in Azerbaijan (+15.7%), Turkmenistan (+2.3%) and Kazakhstan (+12.9%).
In Brazil, marketed production soared 28.4% to 12.6 bcm in 2008.
In Asia, the largest absolute growth in marketed production was posted in China, where output was estimated at 76.1 bcm in 2008, up 12.3% from 2007.
A 6% production growth in the Middle East was mostly due to Qatar, in addition to higher production from Iran, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain
Production in Africa rose 4.5% to cope with rising exports and regional demand. The highest output growth rates were recorded in Equatorial Guinea, Egypt and Tunisia. Equatorial Guinea's production soared 28% to an estimated 6.6 bcm to support rising LNG exports from EG LNG plant.
In Nigeria, gross production fell 7.1% to 63.5 bcm in 2008, while the volume of flared gas decreased from approximately 22 bcm to 17 bcm. Marketed production was mostly flat.
Algerian gas production grew slightly to a tentatively estimated volume of 86.3 bcm in 2008 to meet higher pipeline exports and rising local demand.
Market share of the three main regional importing areas in total international imports changed as follows: 46.9% to 48.1% for Europe, 18.2% to 18.4% for Asia and 17.2% to 15.5% for North America, as net imports in the United States decreased 20% from 2007 to 2008. The United States in 2008 received net volumes of 87.2 bcm, which was the lowest level since 1997. The US import dependence thus dropped from 17% to 13% in 2008.

WORLDWIDE CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS (10⁹ m³)

Change by large geographical area

North America
Central & South America
OECD-Europe
Eastern Europe and CIS
Africa
Middle East
Asia-Oceania
TOTAL

1970

651,4
33,8
82,2
236,7
1,9
18,5
15,6
1.040,1

1980

628,4
62,7
235,4
457,1
18,6
41,5
75,1
1.518,8

1990

612,4
85,5
290,1
792,1
39,5
95,1
153,6
2.068,3

1995

682,8
101,2
351,4
663,8
47,8
139,8
217,1
2.203,9

2000

723,2
132,8
431,0
659,6
59,5
192,2
293,8
2.491,9

2005

705,4
168,9
536,2
653,8
81,2
262,9
392,0
2.800,4

2007

733,6
185,0
546,1
632,0
86,5
302,5
450,9
2.936,6

2008

749,0
196,7
566,0
646,8
90,8
325,7
480,2
3.055,2

2008(%)

24,5
6,4
18,5
21,2
3,0
10,7
15,7
100,0

(2) Since 2007, EU 27 plus Norway, Switzeland, Turkey and Central Europe. The Figures for previous years, not including figures for Central Europe (mainly Romania) which were included in the area of Eastern Europe and CIS.
Source: CEDIGAZ

Consumption (source, Cedigaz):

Consumption in the US increased for the second consecutive year in 2008, after decreasing in 2005 and 2006 .US apparent consumption (excluding storage variations) increased by 3.3% to a new record level of 669.4 bcm in 2008, despite hurricane activity and economic slowdown in the second half of the year. Real consumption increased significantly in the residential sector (+3%) due to colder than 2007.
Consumption increased 2.3% in the Former Soviet Union.The growth in apparent consumption in the Former Soviet Union can be mainly explained by an unusually high level of consumption in the first quarter 2008, when many parts of the region suffered very low temperatures.
With robust storage inventories in the country, domestic real consumption declined in the second half of 2008, due to an unusually warm winter and economic downturn.

WORLDWIDE CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS (10⁹ m³)

North America
USA
Canada
Central & South America
Argentina
Mexico
Brazil
Trinidad &Tobago
Venezuela
Chile
Europe (1)
Germany
United Kingdom
Italy
Netherlands
France
Spain
CIS
Russia
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
Byelorussia
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Africa
Algeria
Egypt
Middle East
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Asia-Oceania
Japan
China
India
South Korea
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Pakistan
Australia
TOTAL WORLD

2004

721,0
627,5
92,7
163,2
37,9
48,6
17,3
14,2
27,2
8,3
524,6
94,5
97,3
80,7
44,5
47,9
27,7
652,6
453,7
77,6
50,9
19,0
14,1
14,1
79,4
25,5
31,3
243,7
86,5
65,7
376,0
78,7
40,8
30,8
29,9
37,1
33,0
29,9
27,4
22,9
2.760,5

2005

705,4
614,0
91,4
168,9
40,4
47,9
18,7
16,7
28,2
7,6
536,2
91,6
95,1
85,3
44,2
49,3
33,6
653,8
436,9
76,0
58,0
20,1
19,9
16,5
81,2
24,6
34,2
262,9
102,4
71,2
392,0
79,0
48,0
35,9
30,5
37,5
33,2
32,6
30,8
24,1
2.800,4

2006

716,0
620,9
95,1
180,7
41,8
52,9
19,3
20,2
26,0
7,5
537,8
92,6
91,0
87,8
40,4
49,9
35,2
649,3
417,3
70,3
54,8
20,5
27,1
14,3
81,6
25,6
28,3
290,7
108,7
73,5
419,1
85,3
59,6
38,8
34,3
27,9
26,1
33,3
36,1
25,6
2.875,2

2007

733,6
648,3
85,3
185,0
43,9
55,6
19,9
20,2
26,6
4,1
546,1
84,1
91,9
83,5
36,3
46,9
35,2
632,0
426,1
71,2
57,3
20,6
32,2
13,9
86,5
26,4
30,6
302,5
113,0
74,4
450,9
92,2
71,8
41,4
34,6
34,6
24,2
35,4
36,5
23,6
2.936,6

2008

749,0
669,4
79,6
196,7
44,5
61,3
23,7
22,0
26,9
2,3
566,0
85,8
95,9
85,7
38,6
49,3
39,8
646,8
438,0
66,0
n.d.
n.d.
n.d.
n.d.
90,8
27,5
31,4
325,7
117,3
78,1
480,2
95,5
80,5
43,0
35,9
36,4
26,5
37,3
37,5
27,3
3.055,2

2008(%)

24,5
21,9
2,6
6,4
1,5
2,0
0,8
0,7
0,9
0,1
18,5
2,8
3,1
2,8
1,3
1,6
1,3
21,2
14,3
2,2
--
--
--
--
3,0
0,9
1,0
10,7
3,8
2,6
15,7
3,1
2,6
1,4
1,2
1,2
0,9
1,2
1,2
0,9
100,0

Naturgas Energía

Annual Report 2.008: Sedigas - The Spanish Gas Association