The international energy situation
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Forecasts
Forecasts
The objective data available half-way through 2008 was already having an effect on long-term forecasts, resulting in a shrinkage in demand that related both to the rise in energy prices and the slowdown in GDP growth.
The most recent long-term energy forecast from the US government was set out in the document entitled International Energy Outlook 2008, published half-way through 2008 by the Energy Information Administration (EIA)), a US government agency.
This predicted an increase in world energy consumption of 50% between 2005 and 2030, based on a reference model, implying an annual increase of 0.8% for each year over the period in question. It should be remembered that an earlier study (2007) had forecast an increase in energy consumption of 57% between 2004 and 2030.
Some other interesting findings contained in the study include:
The following are some of the notable points made in the study:
Not only is this study notable for the highly ambitious targets set for energy efficiency within the European Union, a fact criticised by some specialist commentators, some of the indicators used in the model are not very realistic. For example, the estimated population of the European Union as a whole in 2030 is 494.8 million people, 1.9 million more than the estimate for 2010. Some commentators have found it difficult to accept that a 50.3% increase in GDP over the same period will not generate a greater increase in population, even though this may be from the outside (migratory movement), a possibility also considered in the study.
As a result, the objective data available half-way through 2008 was already having an effect on long-term predictions, showing a shrinkage in demand caused by both the rise in energy prices and the slowdown in GDP growth.
The study found that demand in countries not belonging to the OECD would leap by 85%, compared with an increase of just 19% in OECD countries.
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- Carbon dioxide emissions will continue their upward trend, from 25.1 billion tonnes in 2005 to 42.2 billion in 2030, an increase of 50.5%, in line with the increase in energy consumption.
- Transport will account for 74% of the forecast increase in demand for oil-based products over the period, since these are the fuels that are most used in the transport sector.
- Non-conventional resources in the oil industry (oil sand, heavy oil, biofuels, petrol obtained from natural gas, etc.) will account for 9.7 million barrels a day by 2030, representing 9% of the liquid fuel supply.
- Consumption of natural gas will rise by 51.9% over the period, as compared with the base or reference measure.
- Natural gas is expected to become a key energy in the industrial and electricity generation sectors.
- Natural gas will play a crucial role, due to its contribution to the reduction of emissions, its use in support of renewable energies and its greater efficiency.
- The use of natural gas and coal in electricity generation will increase at a faster rate than other conventional energy sources, with annual rises of 3.7% and 3.1% respectively.
- The use of renewable energy will grow at an annual rate of 2.1%, the highest of all energy sources.
- Installed nuclear capacity will rise from 374 GW in 2005 to 498 GW in 2030.
The predictions made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for 2030 (World Energy Outlook 2008) are slightly alarming.
Some of the conclusions set out in the report’s summary:
- The world energy system has reached a crossroads.
- Worldwide behavioural patterns in the supply and consumption of energy are unsustainable from an economic, social and environmental point of view. However, there is still time to alter this behaviour.
- The future of human prosperity depends on the degree to which we are able to tackle the two most important challenges faced at the moment: the security of energy supplies and movement towards an efficient and environmentally-friendly energy system.
- Worldwide energy consumption will continue to grow, though at a slower rate than was predicted in the study published in 2007. The causes: rising prices and slower economic growth. Between now and 2030, demand for energy will increase at an annual rate of 1.6%.
- Fossil fuels will account for 80% of the worldwide energy supply, a little less than at present.
- Oil will maintain its dominant position, coal will grow at a faster rate than other fossil fuels and natural gas will marginally increase its share of the overall energy pie. The majority of this growth will come from its use in electricity generation.
- Among the primary energy sources consumed worldwide, coal’s share will increase from 26% in 2006 to 29% in 2030; natural gas will rise from 21% to 22%; oil will fall from 34% to 30%; nuclear energy will fall from 6 to 5%; and hydroelectric power will remain steady at 2%. The rest is made up from biomass and solid urban waste, which will retain a share of 10% (it should be remembered that biomass forms an essential part of the energy supply in many developing countries), and other renewables, which will rise from 1% to 2%.
- Half the new electricity potential installed around the world will be produced using coal. This estimate is partly conditional upon the finding set out in the following point.
- China and India will be responsible for 51% of all new energy demand generated during the period from 2006 to 2030.
- The contribution made by non-hydroelectric renewable energy will grow markedly in absolute terms, with its share in the global energy market increasing from 11% in 2006 to 12% in 2030.
- The accumulated investment required to cope with energy needs for the period totalled 26.3 billion dollars in 2007, four million more than was estimated in the previous study.
- There is considerable uncertainty over the role of nuclear energy in the study’s projections. It is presumed that there will be policy changes that will increase its relative importance in the future.
- In relation to electricity generation on a world scale, the forecasts made in the 2008 Report show coal as the only classic primary energy source that will increase its share, rising from 41% to 44%. Natural gas remains at 20%, oil falls from 6% to 2% and nuclear power falls from 15% to 10%. Renewables as a whole increase their share from 18% to 23%, although hydroelectric power falls from 16% to 14%.
- In the OECD countries as a whole, natural gas is the only non-renewable energy that will increase its share in electricity generation, rising from 20% to 21%. Coal falls from 38% to 34%, nuclear energy from 23% to 18% and oil from 4% in 2006 to 1% in 2030. The share taken by renewable energies increases from 3% to 14%, with wind energy showing the most significant increase, rising from 1% in 2006 to 8% by the end of the period studied.
The publication European Energy and Transport. Trends to 2030-Update 2007, published by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Energy and Transport in 2008, reaches general conclusions that are less expansive than those reached in the above studies.
For example:
- In 2030, demand for energy within the countries of the European Union (EU-27) will be 11% higher than in 2005. This predicted increase is much lower than forecast growth in GDP, which stands at 71%. During the last decade, the average annual increase in energy consumption throughout the EU will be 0.2%.
- This increased demand will mainly be satisfied by natural gas and renewables, the only energy sources that increase their market share. Gas will account for 25.7% of total energy consumption in 2030, with renewables taking 11.8%. Oil will account for 35.3%, coal for 16,7% and nuclear energy for 10.3%, while renewable energies will increase their share to 11.8%, five percentage points more than in the year used as the start-point, 2005.
- Natural gas consumption will rise from 444.8 million Tep in 2005 to 516.2 million Tep in 2030. Between 2010 and 2020, the annual increase will be 0.9%, with annual growth of 0.2% during the following decade.
Annual Report 2.008: Sedigas - The Spanish Gas Association